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November 2023 Market Commentary & Outlook

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Markets closed on a positive note in November with signals of the US economy cooling off and reduced inflation lifting both stocks and fixed income. Major stock indexes globally saw significant gains. Bond prices increased as yields declined with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4.4%, down from its mid-October peak of 5%.

Optimism stemmed from a cooler US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and labor market for October reducing the expectation for future Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. Despite the US economy and labor market cooling, the Fed pledged to maintain elevated policy rates until the job is done. There still is concern over elevated inflation from some Fed committee members, however analysts expect two quarter-percent federal funds rate cuts in the first half of 2024.

The UK and Eurozone saw declines in their inflation rates, potentially ending the benchmark interest rate increase campaigns in both regions.  The improvement helped drive strong stock market gains internationally.

Markets head into the final month of the year with significant momentum and are on pace to post significant gains, bouncing back from 2022.

Index Performance November Year to Date Trailing 12 Months
US Stocks (Russell 3000) 9.32% 19.61% 12.61%
Foreign Stocks (FTSE AW ex US) 9.00% 10.59% 10.00%
US Bond Mkt. (BBgBarc Int. Gov/Cred) 2.67% 2.86% 2.67%
Cash (ICE BofA ML 3-Mo T-Bill) 0.45% 4.53% 4.91%