Stocks surged higher in the closing days of a holiday-shortened trading week, ignited by a political resolution on raising the debt ceiling and a strong employment report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.02%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 1.83%. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 2.04% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slipped 0.52%.^1,2,3

The weight of uncertainty over negotiations to raise the federal debt ceiling was lifted last week by the news of an agreement between President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy and its subsequent passage in Congress. After a modest gain on Thursday following the House vote, stocks rallied on Friday, responding to the Senate passage of the debt ceiling bill, which eliminated a significant overhang to the market. A robust federal employment report also contributed to the Friday rally. The report exceeded market expectations in the growth of new jobs while reflecting a deceleration in wage growth.

Last week’s employment data showed that the labor market remains stout after over a year of sharp interest rate hikes. Job openings in April increased to more than 10 million, reversing three straight months of declines, while private sector employment increased by 278,000 jobs in May, according to a survey by Automated Data Processing (ADP), a significant payroll processor.^4,5

In line with these strong numbers, the Department of Labor reported 339,000 new jobs were added in May. That came above the consensus estimate of 190,000 and marked the 29th consecutive month of positive growth.⁶

^{1.The Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2023, 2. The Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2023, 3. The Wall Street Journal, June 2, 2023, 4. The Wall Street Journal, May 31, 2023, 5. CNBC, June 1, 2023, 6. CNBC, June 2, 2023}

Markets moved in sync last week with perceived movement in debt ceiling talks, weakening early in the week and then surging on news of progress. A solid quarterly report and guidance from a mega-cap technology company helped with enthusiasm. Overall, the markets were mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.00%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 0.32%. The Nasdaq Composite index led, picking up 2.51% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, sank 2.92%.^1,2,3

Stocks were weighed down for much of the week by stumbling debt ceiling negotiations, which appeared to reach an impasse at one point. Technology stocks, which have led the market this year, were under pressure as traders began to anticipate the possibility of rate hikes in June and July. Sentiment turned more optimistic after the release of an above-consensus earnings report and strong guidance from a mega-cap chip giant. The momentum continued into Friday as stocks surged on hopes of a debt ceiling agreement, undeterred by an inflation read that may induce the Fed to raise interest rates further.

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) May meeting reflected division among committee members over whether further rate increases were necessary, with more than half suggesting that they were ready to pause. Those members supporting additional rate hikes said inflation was moving too slowly toward the Fed’s two percent target inflation rate. The minutes also reaffirmed the Fed’s expectation of a recession beginning around the fourth quarter. In comments last Wednesday, Fed governor Christopher Waller manifested this division, saying that it was a toss-up as to whether rates should be raised, suggesting that he could support a rate hike in June or wait on voting for an increase until July’s meeting.

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, May 26, 2023, 2. The Wall Street Journal, May 26, 2023, 3. The Wall Street Journal, May 26, 2023}

Stocks rallied last week, propelled by growing optimism over reaching a deal on raising the debt ceiling and avoiding a technical debt default by the U.S. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 0.38% higher, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 1.65%. The Nasdaq Composite index advanced 3.04% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 0.47%.^1,2,3

After stumbling on weak April retail sales and a combination of disappointing earnings and weak guidance from a major retailer, stocks moved higher mid-week as the news on the debt negotiations turned more positive. The prospect of an agreement helped to lift a cloud of uncertainty that had weighed on markets in recent weeks and sparked sufficient optimism to shake off comments by the Dallas Fed President, who indicated that economic data may not support a pause in rate hikes yet. Aiding the market’s upbeat mood was a positive update on deposit growth at a troubled regional bank. Stocks surrendered some of the week’s gains on Friday following reports of an impasse on debt talks and comments by Fed Chair Powell.

Recent updates have suggested that the housing market may be staging a turnaround after a long period of contraction. Last week’s data contained some fresh evidence of revival and caution that any potential recovery may remain further out. The first positive sign was an increase in home builder sentiment that put the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index’s confidence level at the midpoint for the first time since July 2022. An unexpected 2.2% rise in housing starts in April followed. These encouraging reports, however, were followed by a disappointing 3.4% decline in April existing home sales.^{4, 5, 6}

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, May 19, 2023, 2. The Wall Street Journal, May 19, 2023, 3. The Wall Street Journal, May 19, 2023, 4. National Association of Home Builders, May 16, 2023., 5. Fox Business, May 17, 2023, 6. The Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2023}

Stocks were mixed last week as good inflation news was offset by mounting debt ceiling concerns and rekindled regional banking fears. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.11%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 slipped 0.29%. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 0.40% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.67%.^1,2,3

The week got off to a quiet start as investors waited on April’s two key inflation reports scheduled for release on Wednesday and Thursday. When consumer prices rose less than forecasted, stocks broke out of their lethargy and moved higher. Stocks also got a boost on Wednesday afternoon from comments from the White House, hinting at an opening for negotiation on the debt ceiling. Despite a substantial cooling in producer price increases, stocks turned mixed on Thursday amid a disappointing earnings report from a Dow Industrial component and new data that reignited investor anxiety over regional banks’ financial health. Stocks ended the week the way they began, largely drifting in an otherwise directionless fashion.

Consumer prices rose 4.9% year-over-year, the tenth consecutive month that the headline inflation rate has declined. This was a slight improvement over March’s 12-month increase of 5.0%. April’s monthly inflation rate was 0.4 percent, above March’s 0.1 percent rise. April’s increase was driven by higher housing, gasoline, and used car costs.⁴ Inflation progress extended into wholesale prices, which rose 0.2% in April–below the consensus forecast of a 0.3% rise. For the last twelve months, producer prices increased 2.3%, an improvement from last month’s 2.7% year-over-year gain and the lowest recording since January 2021.⁵

^{1.The Wall Street Journal, May 12, 2023, 2. The Wall Street Journal, May 12, 2023, 3. The Wall Street Journal, May 12, 2023, 4. The Wall Street Journal, May 10, 2023, 5.  CNBC, May 11, 2023}

A Friday rebound, triggered by a big tech company’s earnings beat and a strong jobs report, shaved much of the week’s accumulated losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.24%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 0.80%. The Nasdaq Composite Index was flat (+0.07%) for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slipped 0.62%.^1,2,3

Renewed regional bank concerns weighed on investor sentiment last week, despite the rescue of a troubled bank before the start of the trading week. But worries were not isolated to regional banks. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen commented that the federal government may hit its debt ceiling earlier than expected, heightened investor jitters over a potential technical default. The stock market also slipped in the wake of the latest rate hike decision by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Solid earnings from one mega-cap tech firm and a strong employment report steadied investors, resulting in a Friday bounce that ended a volatile week on a positive note.

Amid concerns in the regional bank sector and tightening credit conditions, the Fed elected to increase interest rates by 0.25%, citing elevated inflation and robust job gains. Investors were more focused, however, on what the Fed signaled about its plans since the expected rate hike. The Fed indicated it may pause further rate hikes, suggesting that future decisions will be based on economic data and prevailing financial conditions. Following the announcement, interest rate traders assigned an 89% probability that rates would remain unchanged following the next meeting of the FOMC in June.^{4, 5}

^{1. The Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2023, 2. The Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2023, 3. The Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2023, 4. The Wall Street Journal, May 3, 2023, 5. CMEGroup.com, May 3, 2023}