March was a volatile month for markets, as the war in Iran intensified early in the month and had ripple effects across global markets. Concerns over energy supply disruptions, including Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, pushed oil prices sharply higher, topping $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 and reigniting inflation concerns.
U.S. stocks declined during the month as rising geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices weighed on investor sentiment. Small cap stocks outperformed large caps, and value stocks outpaced growth for both the month and the first quarter. Economic data remained mixed but generally resilient. U.S. stocks posted five straight weeks of declines, but showed signs of improvement late in the month as the White House signaled that negotiations with Iran were in progress, helping to ease some near-term concerns.
International stocks trailed their U.S. counterparts and pulled back during the month of March, negating the strong gains to start the year. A stronger U.S. dollar created additional headwinds for returns, while rising global yields and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty further pressured stocks abroad. Oil-dependent economies, particularly those that are net importers of energy, faced added strain from higher prices.
Bond markets declined as yields moved higher. The surge in oil prices and renewed inflation concerns led the Federal Reserve to maintain a more cautious, hawkish stance at its March meeting. Investors now see interest rate cuts this year as unlikely. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged during the month as inflation concerns remained elevated. As a result, rising yields weighed on fixed income performance.
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East, inflation trends, central bank policy, and upcoming corporate earnings reports for the first quarter. A ceasefire announced in early April helped markets rebound and pare losses, though uncertainty remains elevated and periods of volatility may continue as investors assess the path forward.
Source: Morningstar, Inc.
Disclosure: There is no guarantee that any investment strategy, including those described here, will be successful. Any investment or investment strategy can lose money. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future results. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this market commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Raffa Investment Advisers, LLC. This information was gathered from reliable sources, but we cannot guarantee accuracy. Indexes do not reflect the fees associated with actual investments and such fees would reduce the performance illustrated. Raffa actively leverages Artificial Intelligence and Large Language Models within our operations. The use of such technologies, focusing on the safeguard of non-public personal information, protecting of trade secrets, verification of information accuracy, and other pertinent compliance considerations, is outlined in Raffa’s Compliance Manual and acknowledged by Raffa staff. All viewpoints and final content created was reviewed and approved by the Raffa team to verify accuracy, perspective, and compliance with our marketing guidelines.
March 2026 Market Commentary & Outlook
Market Commentary
March was a volatile month for markets, as the war in Iran intensified early in the month and had ripple effects across global markets. Concerns over energy supply disruptions, including Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, pushed oil prices sharply higher, topping $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 and reigniting inflation concerns.
U.S. stocks declined during the month as rising geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices weighed on investor sentiment. Small cap stocks outperformed large caps, and value stocks outpaced growth for both the month and the first quarter. Economic data remained mixed but generally resilient. U.S. stocks posted five straight weeks of declines, but showed signs of improvement late in the month as the White House signaled that negotiations with Iran were in progress, helping to ease some near-term concerns.
International stocks trailed their U.S. counterparts and pulled back during the month of March, negating the strong gains to start the year. A stronger U.S. dollar created additional headwinds for returns, while rising global yields and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty further pressured stocks abroad. Oil-dependent economies, particularly those that are net importers of energy, faced added strain from higher prices.
Bond markets declined as yields moved higher. The surge in oil prices and renewed inflation concerns led the Federal Reserve to maintain a more cautious, hawkish stance at its March meeting. Investors now see interest rate cuts this year as unlikely. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged during the month as inflation concerns remained elevated. As a result, rising yields weighed on fixed income performance.
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East, inflation trends, central bank policy, and upcoming corporate earnings reports for the first quarter. A ceasefire announced in early April helped markets rebound and pare losses, though uncertainty remains elevated and periods of volatility may continue as investors assess the path forward.
Source: Morningstar, Inc.
Disclosure: There is no guarantee that any investment strategy, including those described here, will be successful. Any investment or investment strategy can lose money. Past performance does not guarantee or predict future results. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this market commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Raffa Investment Advisers, LLC. This information was gathered from reliable sources, but we cannot guarantee accuracy. Indexes do not reflect the fees associated with actual investments and such fees would reduce the performance illustrated. Raffa actively leverages Artificial Intelligence and Large Language Models within our operations. The use of such technologies, focusing on the safeguard of non-public personal information, protecting of trade secrets, verification of information accuracy, and other pertinent compliance considerations, is outlined in Raffa’s Compliance Manual and acknowledged by Raffa staff. All viewpoints and final content created was reviewed and approved by the Raffa team to verify accuracy, perspective, and compliance with our marketing guidelines.