U.S. stocks edged down during a choppy July as investors balanced corporate earnings against renewed geopolitical and inflation concerns. Oil briefly climbed above $100 per barrel after hopes for a sustained ceasefire in the Middle East faded, adding to market volatility. Second-quarter earnings reported through the end of July were generally better than expected, although results from mega-cap technology companies were mixed. Value stocks outperformed growth stocks and large-cap stocks topped small-cap stocks during the month.
International stocks ticked up during July, although performance varied across regions. The United Kingdom outperformed, supported by its sizable energy and financial sectors, while European stocks were broadly flat. Emerging markets declined, weighed down by weakness in semiconductor-heavy markets.
Bonds declined in July as higher energy prices, persistent inflation concerns, and resilient economic data pushed bond yields higher both domestically and abroad. The Federal Reserve left its target rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, although three policymakers dissented in favor of a rate increase. Treasury yields climbed as investors reassessed the path of Fed policy, with the 30-year Treasury yield ending the month at its highest level since July 2007.
Looking ahead, markets will remain focused on second-quarter earnings, inflation trends, labor-market data, and the path of Fed policy. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy prices may also contribute to continued volatility, affirming the importance of a diversified investment approach.
Index Performance
July
Year-to-Date
Trailing 12 Months
U.S. Stocks (Russell 3000)
- 0.48%
10.35%
19.60%
International Stocks (FTSE AW ex U.S.)
0.34%
14.00%
28.45%
U.S. Bond Market (BBgBarc Int. Gov/Cred)
- 0.43%
- 0.02%
2.84%
Cash (ICE BofA ML 3-Mo T-Bill)
0.33%
2.08%
3.82%
Source: Morningstar, Inc. as of 7/31/2026.
Disclosure: Past performance does not guarantee or predict future results. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy, including those described here, will be successful. Any investment or investment strategy can lose money. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this market commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Raffa Investment Advisers (“Raffa”). This information was gathered from reliable sources, but we cannot guarantee accuracy or completeness. Indexes do not reflect the fees associated with actual investments and such fees would reduce the performance illustrated. Raffa actively leverages Artificial Intelligence and Large Language Models within our operations. The use of such technologies, focusing on the safeguard of non-public personal information, protecting of trade secrets, verification of information accuracy, and other pertinent compliance considerations, is outlined in Raffa’s Compliance Manual and acknowledged by Raffa staff. All viewpoints and final content created was reviewed and approved by the Raffa team to verify accuracy, perspective, and compliance with our marketing guidelines.
July 2026 Market Commentary & Outlook
Market Commentary
U.S. stocks edged down during a choppy July as investors balanced corporate earnings against renewed geopolitical and inflation concerns. Oil briefly climbed above $100 per barrel after hopes for a sustained ceasefire in the Middle East faded, adding to market volatility. Second-quarter earnings reported through the end of July were generally better than expected, although results from mega-cap technology companies were mixed. Value stocks outperformed growth stocks and large-cap stocks topped small-cap stocks during the month.
International stocks ticked up during July, although performance varied across regions. The United Kingdom outperformed, supported by its sizable energy and financial sectors, while European stocks were broadly flat. Emerging markets declined, weighed down by weakness in semiconductor-heavy markets.
Bonds declined in July as higher energy prices, persistent inflation concerns, and resilient economic data pushed bond yields higher both domestically and abroad. The Federal Reserve left its target rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, although three policymakers dissented in favor of a rate increase. Treasury yields climbed as investors reassessed the path of Fed policy, with the 30-year Treasury yield ending the month at its highest level since July 2007.
Looking ahead, markets will remain focused on second-quarter earnings, inflation trends, labor-market data, and the path of Fed policy. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy prices may also contribute to continued volatility, affirming the importance of a diversified investment approach.
U.S. Stocks (Russell 3000)
- 0.48%
10.35%
19.60%
International Stocks (FTSE AW ex U.S.)
0.34%
14.00%
28.45%
U.S. Bond Market (BBgBarc Int. Gov/Cred)
- 0.43%
- 0.02%
2.84%
Cash (ICE BofA ML 3-Mo T-Bill)
0.33%
2.08%
3.82%
Source: Morningstar, Inc. as of 7/31/2026.
Disclosure: Past performance does not guarantee or predict future results. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy, including those described here, will be successful. Any investment or investment strategy can lose money. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this market commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Raffa Investment Advisers (“Raffa”). This information was gathered from reliable sources, but we cannot guarantee accuracy or completeness. Indexes do not reflect the fees associated with actual investments and such fees would reduce the performance illustrated. Raffa actively leverages Artificial Intelligence and Large Language Models within our operations. The use of such technologies, focusing on the safeguard of non-public personal information, protecting of trade secrets, verification of information accuracy, and other pertinent compliance considerations, is outlined in Raffa’s Compliance Manual and acknowledged by Raffa staff. All viewpoints and final content created was reviewed and approved by the Raffa team to verify accuracy, perspective, and compliance with our marketing guidelines.