U.S. stocks edged down during June but posted their best quarterly return since 2020. Strong corporate earnings, easing geopolitical tensions, and declining oil prices supported stocks over the quarter. While the record-setting SpaceX IPO dominated headlines in June, large-cap growth stocks pulled back as elevated valuation concerns came back into focus. Market leadership broadened during the month with small-cap and value stocks outperforming. First-quarter GDP growth was revised higher, reinforcing the resilience of the U.S. economy despite persistent inflation pressures.
International stocks declined in June but generated strong gains over the second quarter. European markets led performance in June. Although emerging markets underperformed developed markets during the month, they continued to lead over the second quarter and remain among the strongest-performing regions year to date. Quarterly gains were supported by improving investor sentiment, attractive relative valuations, and continued demand for semiconductor and AI-related hardware.
Bonds posted modest gains in June, with yields ending the month little changed. At its first meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged, citing inflation remaining above target and a steady labor market. The Fed maintained a hawkish tone, signaling that rate cuts are unlikely in the near term and that rate hikes remain a possibility should inflation persist. Despite yields moving higher during the quarter, bonds generated positive returns. International bonds also gained as global inflation pressures showed signs of easing.
Looking ahead, second-quarter earnings reports will be in focus as investors assess whether corporate profits can build on a strong first-quarter earnings season. Inflation, labor market conditions, the path of Fed policy, and geopolitical developments in the Middle East will remain key drivers of market sentiment heading into the second half of the year.
Source: Morningstar, Inc. as of 6/30/2026.
Disclosure:Past performance does not guarantee or predict future results.There is no guarantee that any investment strategy, including those described here, will be successful. Any investment or investment strategy can lose money. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this market commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Raffa Investment Advisers (“Raffa”). This information was gathered from reliable sources, but we cannot guarantee accuracy or completeness. Indexes do not reflect the fees associated with actual investments and such fees would reduce the performance illustrated. Raffa actively leverages Artificial Intelligence and Large Language Models within our operations. The use of such technologies, focusing on the safeguard of non-public personal information, protecting of trade secrets, verification of information accuracy, and other pertinent compliance considerations, is outlined in Raffa’s Compliance Manual and acknowledged by Raffa staff. All viewpoints and final content created was reviewed and approved by the Raffa team to verify accuracy, perspective, and compliance with our marketing guidelines.
June 2026 Market Commentary & Outlook
Market Commentary
U.S. stocks edged down during June but posted their best quarterly return since 2020. Strong corporate earnings, easing geopolitical tensions, and declining oil prices supported stocks over the quarter. While the record-setting SpaceX IPO dominated headlines in June, large-cap growth stocks pulled back as elevated valuation concerns came back into focus. Market leadership broadened during the month with small-cap and value stocks outperforming. First-quarter GDP growth was revised higher, reinforcing the resilience of the U.S. economy despite persistent inflation pressures.
International stocks declined in June but generated strong gains over the second quarter. European markets led performance in June. Although emerging markets underperformed developed markets during the month, they continued to lead over the second quarter and remain among the strongest-performing regions year to date. Quarterly gains were supported by improving investor sentiment, attractive relative valuations, and continued demand for semiconductor and AI-related hardware.
Bonds posted modest gains in June, with yields ending the month little changed. At its first meeting under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left interest rates unchanged, citing inflation remaining above target and a steady labor market. The Fed maintained a hawkish tone, signaling that rate cuts are unlikely in the near term and that rate hikes remain a possibility should inflation persist. Despite yields moving higher during the quarter, bonds generated positive returns. International bonds also gained as global inflation pressures showed signs of easing.
Looking ahead, second-quarter earnings reports will be in focus as investors assess whether corporate profits can build on a strong first-quarter earnings season. Inflation, labor market conditions, the path of Fed policy, and geopolitical developments in the Middle East will remain key drivers of market sentiment heading into the second half of the year.
Source: Morningstar, Inc. as of 6/30/2026.
Disclosure: Past performance does not guarantee or predict future results. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy, including those described here, will be successful. Any investment or investment strategy can lose money. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this market commentary serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Raffa Investment Advisers (“Raffa”). This information was gathered from reliable sources, but we cannot guarantee accuracy or completeness. Indexes do not reflect the fees associated with actual investments and such fees would reduce the performance illustrated. Raffa actively leverages Artificial Intelligence and Large Language Models within our operations. The use of such technologies, focusing on the safeguard of non-public personal information, protecting of trade secrets, verification of information accuracy, and other pertinent compliance considerations, is outlined in Raffa’s Compliance Manual and acknowledged by Raffa staff. All viewpoints and final content created was reviewed and approved by the Raffa team to verify accuracy, perspective, and compliance with our marketing guidelines.